6 min read

The Bet is Becoming Less Speculative

Picture of Mikkel Thorup Mikkel Thorup : Oct 16 2026

If you haven't read yesterday's newsletter yet, I strongly recommend you do that before going any further.

You can read it here: Read Part One Of My Special Paraguay Land Newsletter Series Here

Yesterday, I explained the basic thesis behind the private land-banking collective that Markus Amann and I launched together in Paraguay.

I showed you why Markus began positioning himself in Nueva Asunción years ago, why I invested seven figures of my own, and why we believe the roughly 81 acres we control sit directly in the path of where the continued growth of greater Asunción will need to flow.

When I first started discussing the prospect of securing a significant position in this land for my personal portfolio, many of the industrial and economic indicators we are seeing across Paraguay today didn't exist.

The rapid development we're seeing today was only beginning.

Many of the major infrastructure projects now under construction had not yet broken ground, and the economic indicators were not nearly as strong as they are today. At the time, land in Nueva Asunción was still largely overlooked because it was difficult to access.

There was undeniably more speculation involved.

Despite that, I was incredibly bullish about the potential upside.

Paraguay’s capital city, Asunción, sat beside an enormous amount of undeveloped land that I believed would eventually be in high demand from well-capitalized businesses expanding or establishing operations in the country, particularly as Paraguay’s inexpensive energy, low operating costs, and central position within South America became increasingly valuable.

I saw the trajectory and anticipated that much of what we're watching unfold today would eventually happen, which is precisely why I was willing to deploy seven figures of my own capital when the thesis was still far more speculative.

When I got involved, I believed I knew what was coming and knew it would mean:

Growth in manufacturing would drive demand for factories and industrial parks.
Increased trade would require more warehouses, distribution centres and logistics infrastructure.
Business expansion would generate demand for offices, hotels, commercial centres and supporting services.
More people moving into the area would create demand for new housing and residential communities.
Together, these forces would intensify competition for the area’s finite supply of developable land.

We are banking on the land we own becoming significantly more valuable as it becomes increasingly useful to developers, businesses, institutions and other well-capitalized buyers looking for somewhere to accommodate that growth.

This isn't rocket science (although at the rate Paraguay is attracting new industries, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if a manufacturer of rocket components eventually showed up).

We don't have to correctly predict who will ultimately purchase every parcel of land we own. Nor do we have to correctly predict exactly what they will eventually build on it.

A massive warehouse?

A residential community?

A shopping mall?

An industrial park?

A logistics corridor?

A data center?

I don't know, and frankly, I don't need to know.

What matters is that we own strategically positioned land in the pathway of growth, acquired at prices we believe dramatically undervalue its long-term potential.

Fast-forward a few years, and the basic thesis of buying land where we believed industrial and commercial growth would eventually flow is increasingly being validated.

Today, I am far more confident than I was then because much of what Markus and I believed would happen is now playing out in real time.

Here are some of the developments that have made me substantially more confident in this investment today than I was several years ago:

Paraguay attracted approximately $931 million USD in net foreign direct investment in 2024, up 15% from the previous year.
Direct investors in Paraguay now come from 68 different countries, an important change for a country whose foreign investment historically came from a much smaller group of regional players.
During just the first seven months of 2026, 116 projects representing approximately $448 million USD were approved through Paraguay's investment-attraction regime, 32% more capital than during the same period last year, with a significant portion of the investment flowing into productive sectors such as manufacturing, construction and energy infrastructure.
Paraguay and Taiwan are working on plans for the country's first major AI computing centre. The initial phase is expected to involve between $300-500 million USD in investment, with Paraguay contributing two things it possesses in enormous quantities: inexpensive renewable electricity and physical space, and Taiwan contributing the funding and data infrastructure.
Nasdaq-listed HIVE Digital Technologies, currently valued at roughly $850 million USD, built approximately 300 MW of hydro-powered computing infrastructure in Paraguay during 2025, providing a real-world example of international capital moving into the country to take advantage of its enormous supply of inexpensive hydroelectric power.
Paraguay's industrial manufacturing exports reached approximately $1.31 billion USD during the first seven months of 2026, up roughly 35% from the same period last year, providing another tangible indication of how quickly the country's industrial base is expanding.
Fiat recently broke ground on a new $30 million USD corporate headquarters in Asunción. This isn't a factory, but it is another major international company putting substantial capital behind a long-term physical presence in Paraguay's capital city.
Taiwanese company Mastertrans is establishing an electric-vehicle assembly operation in Paraguay. This is precisely the type of higher-value industrial activity Paraguay's combination of inexpensive energy and competitive operating costs can attract.
Paraguay is investing roughly $1.2 billion USD in approximately 531 kilometres of the Bioceanic Corridor, creating an overland trade route connecting Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, and Chile and providing much more efficient access to both Atlantic and Pacific ports.
New international crossings and cargo infrastructure are also being developed to improve Paraguay's connections with neighbouring countries, including a new border crossing for transport trucks into Argentina.

Much of this is happening because Paraguay has one of the most compelling combinations of inexpensive energy, available land, low operating costs, and geographic positioning in South America.

Abundant freshwater.

Some of the cheapest renewable electricity on the planet.

Fertile agricultural land and an agricultural economy that punches above its weight.

An established food-export economy.

A central geographic position between Brazil, Argentina and the emerging Atlantic-to-Pacific trade routes running across South America.

As more capital, infrastructure, industry, and people arrive to take advantage of this almost ridiculous collection of natural advantages, international capital and well-capitalized operators are already arriving to capitalize on them.

All of this economic activity needs somewhere to go, and we own the land in the most logical place to house it.

The businesses need somewhere to operate.

The goods need somewhere to be stored.

The developers need somewhere to build.

Logistics companies need somewhere to move, process, and distribute goods.

I said it yesterday, but it’s worth hammering home again: growth consumes land.

Investors in our collective are acquiring exposure to our land at $31 USD per square metre.

Meanwhile, established land in Asunción, which is now only minutes away from Nueva Asunción (because of the Héroes del Chaco Bridge), can already command around $600 USD per square metre (prime land is closer to $2,000 USD per square metre).

Do you understand the pricing gap we're attempting to capture?

Could we sell portions of our land today for considerably more than we paid?

Yes. Absolutely.

But that isn't why I went through the trouble of launching this collective.

I'm not interested in selling because we can lock in a profit today.

The economic activity is moving in our direction, and if we're right, selling too early means leaving serious capital on the table and forgoing much of what we've spent years positioning ourselves to capture.

So, we wait.

Markus didn't begin acquiring this land after the growth-unlocking infrastructure was already in place, or after international companies started announcing hundreds of millions of dollars in new investments.

Markus bet that what is happening now would happen, and he was right.

Much of what we're watching today is precisely the type of development we were positioning for.

That still doesn't mean the investment is guaranteed to work; it doesn't mean every assumption Markus and I have made will prove correct, and it doesn't eliminate risk. It doesn't.

This is an investment, and all investments carry risk.

But when I compare the Paraguay I was looking at several years ago with the Paraguay I'm looking at today, my conviction in this land-banking play has increased dramatically.

I have seven figures of my own capital invested in that conviction, and sophisticated investors in my private network have now committed close to $6 million USD to our collective, many of whom are Expat Money Private Clients.

The collective will take in a total of $10 million USD, is already nearly 60% subscribed, and if the current inflows of roughly $1 million USD per month continue, the collective will be fully subscribed before the end of this year (2026).

If you are a wealthy investor and any of what I've shared with you today has piqued your interest, set aside 30 minutes, sit down somewhere without distractions and watch the presentation from beginning to end.

However, before I say anything else, I want to be very clear again: the invitation to view the special land banking presentation is only open to select high-net-worth members of our community.

Generally speaking, your potential participation will require you to meet certain income, net worth, or financial sophistication requirements.

Before viewing the presentation, you will be redirected to a page where the qualifications for your potential participation will be listed. In order to access the presentation, you will have to confirm “yes” to the listed requirements in order to access and view the presentation.

If you watch the presentation, decide you want to investigate further, and eventually wish to participate, you will also need to complete our full KYC and AML process before moving forward.

After you watch the presentation in full, you can email my personal assistant, Michelle, at Michelle@ExpatMoney.com. Michelle will then arrange a private meeting between you, Markus, and me to discuss your potential involvement further.

WATCH THE PRIVATE PARAGUAY LAND PRESENTATION RIGHT NOW.

Speak soon,
Mikkel

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